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Module 6 · Regression & Correlation · Topic 5

Least Squares Method

Least Squares. The least squares method finds the line that minimizes the sum of the squared residuals (SSE = Σ(yᵢ − ŷᵢ)²). This produces the best-fitting line in terms of vertical distances from data points.

Why Squared?. Squaring the residuals ensures positive and negative errors don’t cancel, penalizes larger errors more, and yields a unique, mathematically tractable solution.

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Key formulas

Slope via Least Squares

b = Σ[(xᵢ − x̄)(yᵢ − ȳ)] / Σ[(xᵢ − x̄)²]

From the Regression & Correlation formula sheet

  • Least-Squares Regression Line: yhat = a + bx - Line that minimizes the sum of squared residuals.
  • Pearson Correlation: r = sum((x_i-xbar)(y_i-ybar)) / sqrt(sum((x_i-xbar)^2)sum((y_i-ybar)^2)) - Measures direction and strength of a linear association.

See the full formula reference

Worked example

Conceptual Example

Imagine pinning a thread to a scatter plot so it passes through (̄x, ȳ). Rotating it until the sum of squared vertical residuals is minimized gives the least squares line.

Related glossary terms

  • Residual: The observed value minus the predicted value. Example: If y = 12 and yhat = 9, the residual is 3.

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