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Module 6 · Regression & Correlation · Topic 7

Residual Analysis

Residual Plots. Plot residuals on the y-axis against x (or ŷ) on the x-axis. A good linear model shows randomly scattered residuals with no pattern. Patterns indicate the model is inadequate.

What Patterns Reveal. A curved pattern suggests a nonlinear relationship. A funnel shape (increasing spread) indicates heteroscedasticity. Clusters may indicate subgroups in the data.

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Key formulas

Residual

Residual = yᵢ − ŷᵢ (observed minus predicted)

From the Regression & Correlation formula sheet

  • Least-Squares Regression Line: yhat = a + bx - Line that minimizes the sum of squared residuals.
  • Pearson Correlation: r = sum((x_i-xbar)(y_i-ybar)) / sqrt(sum((x_i-xbar)^2)sum((y_i-ybar)^2)) - Measures direction and strength of a linear association.

See the full formula reference

When to use it

Checking Conditions

Before trusting regression results, always examine the residual plot. A model with a high R² can still be inappropriate if the residual plot shows a clear pattern.

Related glossary terms

  • Residual: The observed value minus the predicted value. Example: If y = 12 and yhat = 9, the residual is 3.

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  • How to Choose the Right Statistical Test8 min read
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